Waterloo, December 8 - 11, 2017
*Joint work with Boyu Fan (MIT) and Takeshi Kataoka (Kobe University, Japan)
This talk will present recent observational and idealized modelling results regarding these regimes and the transitions between them. First, the regimes will be separated in data using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) analysis of long time series of tower observations. Idealized physical models will then be used to elucidate the physical mechanism resulting in these regimes. Equilibrium and linear stability analyses will be presented and compared with time-dependent model behaviour. Finally, these ideas will be combined in a stochastic model of the bulk boundary layer momentum budget which provides a physically-based, if idealized, model for the probability distribution of near-surface winds.
This work is in collaboration with R Rotunno (NCAR), H Morrison (NCAR) and R Walsh (SFU).