Media reports affect social behaviour during epidemics and pandemics.
in social behaviour, in turn, affect key epidemic measurements such as peak
magnitude, time to peak, and the beginning and end of an epidemic. The
of this effect has not been realized. We have developed mathematical
models of various scenarios to be considered during epidemic
influenza based on a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered
including the effects of mass media and vaccination. We have derived stochastic differential equation models for each of the different scenarios. We developed an agent
based Monte Carlo (ABMC) simulation to determine the variability in
these key epidemic measurements, so as to provide some insight in to the
effects of mass media on epidemic data.
This is joint work with Jane Heffernan of York University.